Indian refiners, led by private sector Reliance Industries, show no signs of putting the brakes on Russian crude deliveries, with imports climbing in October to their highest level since June, according to ship-tracking data and industry sources.
That could change when refiners place orders at the end of October for December arrival amid claims on Wednesday by US President Donald Trump to have received assurances from New Delhi that India would stop Russian purchases.
Trump told reporters at the White House that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to stop buying Russian oil "within a short period of time,” which he called "a big step."
India cannot do it "immediately," Trump said, adding that it will be "a little bit of a process, but the process is going to be over soon.”
However, India's foreign ministry on Thursday cast doubt on the US president’s remarks. “As per my information, there was no telephone conversation between PM Modi and US President Trump yesterday,” spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal clarified.
India maintains that its import policies are guided by cost and Indian consumer interests. “It has been our consistent priority to safeguard the interests of the Indian consumer in a volatile energy scenario. Our import policies are guided entirely by this objective,” Jaiswal said earlier.
Russia will ship 1.9 million barrels per day of crude to India in October, according to ship tracker Kpler’s data, as of Oct. 16 — above September arrivals of 1.6 million b/d, which were just 100,000 b/d shy of August imports.
Kpler data could change by the end of the month.
Brakes Still Off
Some Indian refiners appear to be in no mood for hitting the brakes on Russian supplies. As M.S. Kamath, managing director of state refiner MRPL, said Thursday on an earnings call, there is no slowdown in Russian oil purchases, and the company will continue buying as long as supplies are available.
“For us it is business as usual,’’ Kamath insisted. MRPL has bought 65,000 b/d of Russian oil this month, half of August’s levels but 15,000 b/d above September purchases, Kpler data shows.
Kamath pointed to two key advantages of Russian oil compared to US or Gulf grades — firstly, a discount of 50¢-$4 per barrel off dated Brent on a delivered basis depending on the cargo. And as Russian oil is bought on a delivered basis, the Brent price is calculated at the time of delivery, whereas for US cargoes, the price is determined closer to the time of loading.
Nonetheless, other state-run refiners are keen to toe New Delhi’s line, while Reliance is being careful not to upset the Trump administration, industry officials said, adding that the government has not officially told any Indian refiners to stop Russian purchases.
Mopping Up Russian Barrels
Meanwhile, Reliance is punching above its 500,000 b/d term contract with Rosneft by 40%, absorbing nearly 700,000 b/d of predominantly Urals grade in October, the Kpler data shows.
Refiners placed orders for October deliveries toward the end of August and in early September, a senior refining official said.
State-run refiner Indian Oil is on track to import 455,000 b/d this month, up from just 190,000 b/d in September. Russian Rosneft-run Nayara Energy is taking in 355,000 b/d, the data shows, after being denied term supplies by Iraq and Saudi Arabia due to EU sanctions in July.
Hindustan Mittal is taking 207,000 b/d from Russia despite Mundra port operator Adani, a gateway to HMEL’s crude imports, barring all EU- and UK-sanctioned vessels from the port.
Discounts on Russian oil have widened from $1.80/bbl levels in June to around $2.50/bbl, attracting renewed interest from state-run refiners, a senior trader said. Reliance’s discount is reportedly fixed at $3/bbl to the medium, sour Dubai benchmark.
Reliance was not available for comment.
"Domestic refiners will purchase crude from various sources guided by economics and availability,” said Prashant Vasisht, senior vice president and co-group head of corporate ratings at ICRA, a Moody’s affiliate.
“While the overall volumes of Russian crude remain high, discounts on Russian crude have been coming down, owing to which Middle East crudes have become attractive because of the geographical proximity of the region to India."
State-run Bharat Petroleum has diversified its purchases to West Africa, the US, Brazil and United Arab Emirates' Murban grade, an official said. As such, the refiner’s Russian supplies are down to 69,000 b/d this month, half of September levels, and down from 350,000 b/d in June and 231,000 b/d in July.
US-India Trade Talks
India’s oil purchases from Russia have become entangled in US-India trade talks. In August, the Trump administration imposed a 25% “secondary tariff” on imports of Indian goods for continued purchases of Russia oil, in addition to a 25% tariff already in place.
Analysts say the secondary tariff may have more to do with extracting leverage from India in trade talks than in halting Russian oil sales.
As part of the trade talks, India is looking to increase purchases of US crude oil, products and LNG. India’s foreign ministry spokesperson said the Trump administration is looking to deepen energy cooperation with India and talks are ongoing.
“India's decision to increase its purchase of US oil is driven by trade and energy security needs, and it does signal both countries may be nearing some sort of trade ‘deal’ before end of the year,” said Shashwat Kumar, a fellow with the Chair on India and Emerging Asia Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.
He noted that in 2025, the US accounted for 6% of India’s crude imports and that India is a price-sensitive market driven by economics.
“US crude oil cost on delivered basis between January-July 2025 was $79/bbl, which is $8 higher than discounted Russian oil and $3 higher than Saudi Arabian oil,” he said.
“Broadly, to wean India away from Russian oil, the US needs to work closely with its partners and allies in the Middle East as part of its broader Middle East strategy. Together, they constitute 55% of India's oil imports in 2025, and that number needs to go up.”